Second quarter outperforms first quarter on the warehouse market
In line with our forecasts from the end of Q1 2020 the warehouse and industrial market in Poland shows a significant level of resistance to the turmoil caused by the pandemic. The majority of the indicators after H1 2020 imply a further growth of the market. In particular Q2 data are very positive in comparison with Q1. As we expected the e-commerce sector played a pivotal role and short-term leases were on the rise.
- At the end of June 2020 modern stock of warehouse and industrial space in Poland reached 19.6 million sq m. The five largest regions which are: Warsaw, Upper Silesia, Central Poland, Wrocław and Poznań accounted for 79% of modern warehouse and industrial stock.
- In H1 2020 new supply of modern warehouse and industrial space exceeded 1.0 million sq m and was 5% below H1 2019, however it was still the second highest volume observed in the first half of any year.
- Despite the current virus-driven crisis and a 15% contraction y-o-y to 1.9 million sq m development activity remained high.
- Covid-19’s turmoil did not damp down demand for warehouse space, just the opposite was observed. In H1 2020 gross demand for warehouse and industrial space reached the highest volume in any H1 and stood at 2.4 million sq m, 25% more than in the previous year.
- Net absorption bounced back in Q2 after slowdown seen in Q1 and at the end of June 2020 exceeded 1.0 million sq m, up by 1% y-o-y.
- At the end of H1 vacancy rate stood at 6.6% which was 0.6 pp less than at the end of March 2020, however 1.5 pp more than a year before.
- In H1 2020 rents were stable in the majority of markets. Some limited decline was noted in several regions. Headline rents for warehouse and industrial space range between EUR 2.70 sq m/month and EUR 4.40 sq m/month for BIG BOX units and up to EUR 5.25 sq m/month for SBU. Effective rents range between EUR 2.00 sq m/month and EUR 3.30 sq m/month for BIG BOX unit and up to EUR 4.60 sq m/month for SBU.
- Industrial production in May and June covered a part of losses from April. Business climate indicator for manufacturing in July increased month-on-month. On the other hand, consumer sentiment moods ran out of steam a little among others due to fear of the second wave of the pandemic.