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Warehouse and industrial market in Poland has recorded another successful year. A fast dynamic of development has been maintained for five years in a row. At the end of 2018 modern stock of warehouse and industrial space has exceeded a psychological barrier of 15 million sq m and reached almost 15.7 m sq m.
Warsaw maintains its position as the largest market with 3.9 m sq m of stock, followed by Upper Silesia (2.6 m sq m), Central Poland (2.5 m sq m), Poznań (2.0 m sq m) and Wrocław (1.7 m sq m).
An acceleration in development activity has been observed for two last years. In 2017 and 2018 altogether as much space was added to the market as in previous seven years in total. In 2018 alone 2.2 m sq m of new space was completed. The majority of a new space was developed in Central Poland – over 791,900 sq m (36% of total new supply in Poland). Other markets with high volume of new supply were: Warsaw (232,900 sq m) and Wrocław (219,400 sq m).
Development activity remains at a very high level. At the end of 2018 there was 1.9 m sq m of under construction warehouse and industrial space countrywide, 36% up year-on-year, however 8% down quarter-on-quarter. Upper Silesia is the most active market with ca. 488,400 sq m of space under construction (25% of total under construction space in Poland).
Gross demand second year in a row has exceeded 4.0 m sq m.
The largest volume of take-up was noticed in Warsaw, where 989,300 sq m of warehouse and industrial space was leased (24% of total leasing activity countrywide). Upper Silesia was second with 693,700 sq m leased (17%). Strong position was maintained by Central Poland with 573,900 sq m of take-up (14%).
Most of demand, as in previous years, was generated by the 3pl sector, which leased almost 1.4 m sq m (33% of total volume of take-up). The retail sector was the second most active with over 1.0 m sq m leased, of which 416,100 sq m was taken by e-1507commerce. Strong demand is also observed in the light production sector (543,700 sq m).
In line with high new supply and strong demand net absorption recorded the second highest value in history and reached almost 2.2 m sq m (down by 5% in comparison to 2017’s record value).
At the end of 2018 vacancy rate stood at 5.1%, which was one of the lowest value ever noticed, and dropped by 0.4 percentage points y-o-y. The lowest rate (excluding Bydgoszcz and Toruń and Western Poland where was no available space at all) was recorded in both Wrocław and Tricity and stood at 2.8%. On the other hand, the highest rate was observed in Eastern Poland (9.3%).
In 2018 an upward trend in rents due to rising construction costs was noticed. Headline rents range between EUR 2.60 m sq/ month and EUR 4.20 sq m/month for BIG BOX units and up to EUR 5.35 sq m/month for SBU. Effective rents range between EUR 2.00 sq m/month and EUR 3.60 sq m/month for BIG BOX unit and up to EUR 4.80 sq m/month for SBU.
We expect a stabilisation of development pace at a high level with still high growth of the market and no unbalances on the horizon in 2019.