Warehouse and Industrial Market in Poland in H1 2019
- The warehouse and industrial market in Poland in H1 2019 kept the momentum. Market conditions remain relatively stable. New locations keep emerging, urban logistics is developing further. The overall positive outlook has been maintained.
- At the end of June 2019 modern stock of warehouse and industrial space amounted to 16.8 m sq m, having increased by almost 1.1 m sq m in H1 2019. Gross take-up reached over 1.8 m sq m.
- Warsaw (both zone I and II) maintains its position as the largest market with over 4.1 m sq m of stock at the end of H1 2019. Central Poland (2.73 m sq m) outran Upper Silesia (2.66 m sq m). Stock in Poznań amounts to 2.0 m sq m and to 1.8 m sq m in Wrocław. Supply of modern warehouse and industrial space in other regions is significantly lower. In Szczecin there is ca. 711,300 sq m of space, whilst stock in Tricity amounts to 614,600 sq m and in Kraków equals ca. 551,700 sq m.
- In H1 2019 almost 1.1 m sq m of new space was added to the market, which is the highest ever value recorded in the first half of a year and 47% up y-o-y. The most of the space was delivered in Central Poland (246,500 sq m), the second largest volume was observed outside of the main markets.
- Development activity in H1 2019 was very high at 2.25 m sq m, second only to level observed in H1 2018 (2.26 m sq m). Upper Silesia is the most active market with ca. 562,000 sq m of space under construction. Other markets with high activity are Warsaw, Central Poland and Wrocław with 398,600 sq m, 357,000 sq m and 325,300 sq m respectively.
- Urban logistics is still on the rise. At the end of June 2019 there was ca. 52,100 sq m of under construction space located in such schemes. Demand for urban logistics warehouses remains high at ca. 31,000 sq m of net take-up in H1 2019 (stable y-o-y).
- Gross demand in H1 2019 amounted to 1.8 m sq m, down by 16% y-o-y. The largest volume of take-up was noticed in Warsaw, where ca. 578,700 sq m was taken (47% more than a year before). Wrocław was second with 302,100 sq m leased. Central Poland was third on the podium with 279,000 sq m. Strong leasing activity was also observed in Poznań with 224,300 sq m of total take-up.
- Net absorption during the first six months reached over 1.0 m sq m, up by 14% y-o-y. The most space was absorbed in Central Poland (200,300 sq m), the second highest volume was noted outside of the main markets, ca. 152,500 sq m, mainly due to completion of BTS project for Zalando in Olsztynek. High net absorption was also noted in Warsaw (145,300 sq m).
- In H1 2019, rents were rather stable. Some rental growth was only noticed in Warsaw II and in Wrocław. Headline rents range between EUR 2.70 m sq/month and EUR 4.20 sq m/month for BIG BOX units and up to EUR 5.35 sq m/month for SBU. Effective rents range between EUR 2.00 sq m/month and EUR 3.60 sq m/month for BIG BOX units and up to EUR 4.80 sq m/ month for SBU.
At the end of June 2019 vacancy rate remained low at 5.1%, up by 1.1 pp y-o-y, however down by 0.4 pp q-o-q. The lowest rate (excluding Western Poland and Szczecin where no space was available) was recorded in Wrocław and Eastern Poland and stood at 2.1% in both regions, low rate was also seen in Tricity (2.3%). On the other hand, the highest rate was observed in Upper Silesia (7.6%) and Poznań (7.5%).
- We expect the market to keep momentum. Total new supply at the end of 2019, taking into consideration developers’ plans, is to be record breaking at ca. 2.5 m sq m. Share of leased space in under construction remains relatively high at ca. 60%, ensuring stability of vacancy rate in the future.